Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge. I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball. However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense. Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme.
Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field. I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure. Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses. It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game. This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion. Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters. I just don't see that happening here. The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents. For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years. Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm.
One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense. Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters. This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation. Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket. Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building. Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down.
